Under the 3rd Package, ENTSOG has to prepare every two years a 10 year network development plan (TYNDP) which will assess the existing gas infrastructure and the expected network investments for the 10 following years. The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) will provide an opinion on the plan and will monitor the consistency between community wide and national investment plans.

In 2009, ERGEG prepared its recommendations on the objectives, content and methodology of the TYNDP for gas, which had been submitted to a public consultation from 25 March to 29 May 2009. In addition, ERGEG engaged a consultant (EWI from the University of Cologne) to conduct a model based analysis of the EU gas system to EWI ( University of Cologne), aimed at better assessing ENTSOG work on its TYNDP.
EWI simulated supply disruptions to assess the future capacity of the network to react in case of major crisis.

This EWI report “Model-based Analysis of Infrastructure Projects and Market Integration in Europe with Special Focus on Security of Supply Scenarios” expresses EWI’s own views and not necessarily that of the European energy regulators, CEER/ERGEG. The content of the study represents a scientific analysis. Assumptions taken were agreed between the consultant and the CEER/ERGEG steering group. The purpose of the study is to provide an input to regulators in assessing ENTSOG’s work on TYNDP.

The ERGEG workshop on 14 June 2010 (the 4th workshop which ERGEG has hosted on the TYNDP) created the platform to present the study and discuss issues such as the planning process and the future infrastructure development. Participants requested an opportunity to comment on the study. As the study is an independent analysis by EWI and does not necessarily represent CEER/ERGEG views, ERGEG will consider these comments in its further work in assessing the ENTSOG TYNDP and also present any such reactions received from stakeholders to ENTSOG who is tasked with preparing the 10 year network development plan.

In order to provide some structured feedback to ENTSOG and regulators, below is a list of questions concerning the study. Comments should be sent to 10-year-plan@ergeg.org by 31 August 2010.

• Do you agree with the modeling approach and the assumptions used?  
• Do you think that a model-based analysis of the European gas network e.g. similar to that presented in the study conducted by EWI would benefit the TYNDP?
• Do you agree with the selected scenarios (supply, demand, infrastructure)
• Do you agree with the process taken by ERGEG to present and discuss the taken assumptions and selected scenarios using public workshops?
• Do you agree with the results of the EWI analysis (e.g. location of bottlenecks)?